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Slough Town vs Tonbridge Angels — League #51 2026

Slough Town
Slough Town
Preview
15:00
Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels
11/28/2026League #51League #51 · National League South - 19Arbour Park
51%
Tonbridge Angels
model favours
27%22%51%

Slough Town sit 19, Tonbridge Angels 5 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slough Town27%
×Draw22%
Tonbridge Angels51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slough Town
1.42
Tonbridge Angels
2.00

Tonbridge Angels creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Slough Town
1.83
Tonbridge Angels
2.50

allows per match

Slough Town
1.50
Tonbridge Angels
1.00

finishing

Slough Town+0.00on par
Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slough Town ↓

Tonbridge Angels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Slough Town or draw
49%
Slough Town or Tonbridge Angels
78%
Draw or Tonbridge Angels
73%

Winning margin

Slough Town wins by 2+
12%
Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Slough Town 1+ goals
76%
Slough Town 2+ goals
41%
Slough Town 3+ goals
17%
Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals
86%
Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals
59%
Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Slough Town (draw refunded)
35%
Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slough Town at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Tonbridge Angels away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slough Town attack 1.83 + Tonbridge Angels defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tonbridge Angels attack 2.50 + Slough Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slough Town scores more
27%
level
22%
Tonbridge Angels scores more
51%

Tonbridge Angels at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Slough Town and Tonbridge Angels have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
LDLDL
Angels
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slough Town face Tonbridge Angels (League #51)

League #51 returns with Slough Town hosting Tonbridge Angels. Match starts November 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Slough Town host Tonbridge Angels at Arbour Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.