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Sloga Požega vs Budučnost Krušik — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Sloga Požega
Sloga Požega
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Budučnost Krušik
Budučnost Krušik
11/25/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 15Stadion FK Sloga Požega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Sloga Požega57%
×Draw25%
Budučnost Krušik19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Požega
1.62
Budučnost Krušik
0.81

Sloga Požega creates 100% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sloga Požega
1.87
Budučnost Krušik
0.91

allows per match

Sloga Požega
0.71
Budučnost Krušik
1.37

finishing

Sloga Požega+0.00on par
Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Požega ↓

Budučnost Krušik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sloga Požega or draw
81%
Sloga Požega or Budučnost Krušik
75%
Draw or Budučnost Krušik
43%

Winning margin

Sloga Požega wins by 2+
31%
Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sloga Požega 1+ goals
80%
Sloga Požega 2+ goals
48%
Sloga Požega 3+ goals
22%
Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals
56%
Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals
19%
Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sloga Požega (draw refunded)
75%
Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Požega at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 100 matches

Budučnost Krušik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Požega attack 1.87 + Budučnost Krušik defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.62

Budučnost Krušik attack 0.91 + Sloga Požega defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sloga Požega scores more
57%
level
25%
Budučnost Krušik scores more
19%

Sloga Požega at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sloga Požega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Požega vs Budučnost Krušik

Sloga Požega and Budučnost Krušik drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - West on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sloga Požega in Požega.