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Sloga Doboj vs Borac Banja Luka — Premijer Liga 2019

Sloga Doboj
Sloga Doboj
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
12/2/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 16Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sloga Doboj32%
×Draw28%
Borac Banja Luka40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Doboj
1.09
Borac Banja Luka
1.24

Borac Banja Luka creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 109 away

creates per match

Sloga Doboj
1.21
Borac Banja Luka
1.30

allows per match

Sloga Doboj
1.18
Borac Banja Luka
0.98

finishing

Sloga Doboj+0.00on par
Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Doboj ↓

Borac Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sloga Doboj or draw
60%
Sloga Doboj or Borac Banja Luka
72%
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
68%

Winning margin

Sloga Doboj wins by 2+
13%
Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sloga Doboj 1+ goals
66%
Sloga Doboj 2+ goals
30%
Sloga Doboj 3+ goals
10%
Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
71%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
35%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sloga Doboj (draw refunded)
45%
Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Doboj at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Doboj attack 1.21 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + Sloga Doboj defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sloga Doboj scores more
32%
level
28%
Borac Banja Luka scores more
40%

Borac Banja Luka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Sloga Doboj 0–4 Borac Banja Luka

Borac Banja Luka beat Sloga Doboj 4-0 in Premijer Liga on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.