Sligo Rovers 2–1 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Sligo Rovers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shelbourne

W. Waweru 65'

W. Fitzgerald 24'

E. Caffrey 56'

8/10/2024

Premier Division · Round 27The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sligo Rovers34%

×Draw24%

Shelbourne43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sligo RoversExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.65

Sligo Rovers

1.44

Shelbourne

1.65

Shelbourne creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.42

creates per match

1.39

1.91

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Sligo Rovers

1.42

Shelbourne

1.39

allows per match

Sligo Rovers

1.91

Shelbourne

1.45

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Sligo Rovers-0.09on par

Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sligo Rovers ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sligo Rovers or draw

57%

Sligo Rovers or Shelbourne

76%

Draw or Shelbourne

66%

Winning margin

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals

76%

Sligo Rovers 2+ goals

42%

Sligo Rovers 3+ goals

18%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

81%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

49%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)

44%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sligo Rovers at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.91 · 9 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sligo Rovers attack 1.42 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Sligo Rovers defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sligo Rovers scores more

34%

level

24%

Shelbourne scores more

43%

Shelbourne at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

H. Wood

Shelbourne · F

7.7

Match Events

19'

Reece Hutchinson

24'

W. Fitzgerald

56'

E. Caffrey↳ H. Wood

63'

L. Pearce← J. Henry-Francis

63'

T. Wilson← K. Ledwidge

65'

72'

73'

73'

73'

82'

87'

M. Isong← H. Wood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SligoShelbourne

Overview

36%Possession64%

7Total Shots13

1Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots13

5On Target4

2Off Target5

0Blocked4

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

301Total Passes521

194Accurate Passes424

64%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0