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Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers — Premier Division 2019

Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
3/9/2024Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 5The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sligo Rovers22%
×Draw23%
Shamrock Rovers55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sligo Rovers
1.02
Shamrock Rovers
1.77

Shamrock Rovers creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sligo Rovers
1.06
Shamrock Rovers
1.41

allows per match

Sligo Rovers
2.13
Shamrock Rovers
0.98

finishing

Sligo Rovers-0.06on par
Shamrock Rovers-0.41scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sligo Rovers ↓

Shamrock Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sligo Rovers or draw
45%
Sligo Rovers or Shamrock Rovers
77%
Draw or Shamrock Rovers
78%

Winning margin

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+
8%
Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals
64%
Sligo Rovers 2+ goals
27%
Sligo Rovers 3+ goals
8%
Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals
83%
Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
53%
Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)
28%
Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sligo Rovers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.13 · 6 matches

Shamrock Rovers away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sligo Rovers attack 1.06 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.41 + Sligo Rovers defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sligo Rovers scores more
22%
level
23%
Shamrock Rovers scores more
55%

Shamrock Rovers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers

Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers drew 0-0 in Premier Division on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at The Showgrounds in Sligo.