Sligo Rovers 3–1 Drogheda United: Result & Stats

Sligo Rovers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Drogheda United

3/16/2024

Premier Division · Round 6The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sligo Rovers36%

×Draw24%

Drogheda United40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sligo RoversExpected goals in this matchDrogheda United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.58

Sligo Rovers

1.48

Drogheda United

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.06

creates per match

1.04

2.13

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Sligo Rovers

1.06

Drogheda United

1.04

allows per match

Sligo Rovers

2.13

Drogheda United

1.89

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

Sligo Rovers-0.06on par

Drogheda United+0.46scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sligo Rovers ↓

Drogheda United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sligo Rovers or draw

60%

Sligo Rovers or Drogheda United

76%

Draw or Drogheda United

64%

Winning margin

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Drogheda United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals

77%

Sligo Rovers 2+ goals

43%

Sligo Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Drogheda United 1+ goals

79%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

47%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)

47%

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sligo Rovers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.13 · 6 matches

Drogheda United away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sligo Rovers attack 1.06 + Drogheda United defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Drogheda United attack 1.04 + Sligo Rovers defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sligo Rovers scores more

36%

level

24%

Drogheda United scores more

40%

Drogheda United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff