Sligo Rovers 0–1 Bohemians: Result & Stats

Sligo Rovers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bohemians

L. Mousset 88'

5/10/2025

Premier Division · Round 15Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sligo Rovers27%

×Draw22%

Bohemians51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sligo RoversExpected goals in this matchBohemians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.94

Sligo Rovers

1.34

Bohemians

1.94

Bohemians creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.39

creates per match

1.84

2.03

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Sligo Rovers

1.39

Bohemians

1.84

allows per match

Sligo Rovers

2.03

Bohemians

1.29

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Sligo Rovers-0.14scores less

Bohemians+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sligo Rovers ↓

Bohemians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sligo Rovers or draw

49%

Sligo Rovers or Bohemians

78%

Draw or Bohemians

73%

Winning margin

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+

11%

Bohemians wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Sligo Rovers 2+ goals

39%

Sligo Rovers 3+ goals

15%

Bohemians 1+ goals

86%

Bohemians 2+ goals

58%

Bohemians 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)

34%

Bohemians (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sligo Rovers at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.03 · 8 matches

Bohemians away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sligo Rovers attack 1.39 + Bohemians defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bohemians attack 1.84 + Sligo Rovers defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sligo Rovers scores more

27%

level

22%

Bohemians scores more

51%

Bohemians at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

S. Sargeant

Sligo Rovers · G

7.9

Match Events

32'

Ronan Manning

59'

R. Brennan← C. Whelan

61'

Rhys Brennan

67'

J. Hakiki← R. Manning

68'

S. Mallon← F. Lomboto

78'

C. Malley← C. Kavanagh

78'

K. McDonagh← C. Reynolds

78'

L. Mousset← J. Clarke

78'

K. Buckley← A. McDonnell

83'

W. Waweru← H. Lintott

84'

A. Meekison← R. Tierney

88'

L. Mousset↳ K. Buckley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SligoBohemians

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots20

2Corners8

16Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots20

2On Target8

4Off Target5

3Blocked7

9Inside Box13

0Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

306Total Passes405

190Accurate Passes289

62%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4