Sleipner 1–1 Nyköping: Result & Stats

Sleipner

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 2

Nyköping

8/19/2020

Svenska Cupen · 1st RoundPlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sleipner9%

×Draw13%

Nyköping79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SleipnerExpected goals in this matchNyköping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

3.17

Sleipner

1.00

Nyköping

3.17

Nyköping creates 217% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

3.33

3.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sleipner

1.00

Nyköping

3.33

allows per match

Sleipner

3.00

Nyköping

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sleipner+0.00on par

Nyköping+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sleipner ↓

Nyköping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–39%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Sleipner or draw

21%

Sleipner or Nyköping

87%

Draw or Nyköping

91%

Winning margin

Sleipner wins by 2+

3%

Nyköping wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Sleipner 1+ goals

63%

Sleipner 2+ goals

26%

Sleipner 3+ goals

8%

Nyköping 1+ goals

96%

Nyköping 2+ goals

82%

Nyköping 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Sleipner (draw refunded)

10%

Nyköping (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sleipner at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Nyköping away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sleipner attack 1.00 + Nyköping defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Nyköping attack 3.33 + Sleipner defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Sleipner scores more

9%

level

13%

Nyköping scores more

79%

Nyköping at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Nyköping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff