Slavoj Trebišov 1–0 Petržalka: Result & Stats

Slavoj Trebišov

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Petržalka

7/24/2021

2. liga · Round 1Štadión Slavoj Trebišov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Slavoj Trebišov41%

×Draw26%

Petržalka33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavoj TrebišovExpected goals in this matchPetržalka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.27

Slavoj Trebišov

1.45

Petržalka

1.27

Slavoj Trebišov creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 96 away

1.45

creates per match

1.26

1.27

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Slavoj Trebišov

1.45

Petržalka

1.26

allows per match

Slavoj Trebišov

1.27

Petržalka

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Petržalka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Trebišov ↓

Petržalka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Slavoj Trebišov or draw

67%

Slavoj Trebišov or Petržalka

74%

Draw or Petržalka

59%

Winning margin

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+

20%

Petržalka wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals

77%

Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals

42%

Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals

18%

Petržalka 1+ goals

72%

Petržalka 2+ goals

36%

Petržalka 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)

56%

Petržalka (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Trebišov at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Petržalka away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.45 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Trebišov attack 1.45 + Petržalka defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Petržalka attack 1.26 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slavoj Trebišov scores more

41%

level

26%

Petržalka scores more

33%

Slavoj Trebišov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slavoj Trebišov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff