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Slavoj Polná vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
PST
14:30
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
5/10/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 22Stadion Slavoj Polná (Polná)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Slavoj Polná35%
×Draw23%
Stará Říše42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Polná
1.58
Stará Říše
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 55 away

creates per match

Slavoj Polná
0.83
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Slavoj Polná
2.50
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw
58%
Slavoj Polná or Stará Říše
77%
Draw or Stará Říše
65%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
17%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
79%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
47%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
21%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
82%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
52%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
46%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more
35%
level
23%
Stará Říše scores more
42%

Stará Říše at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stará Říše will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Polná face Stará Říše (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Slavoj Polná hosting Stará Říše. Match starts May 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Slavoj Polná host Stará Říše at Stadion Slavoj Polná (Polná).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.