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Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Polanka nad Odrou — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
CANC
15:00
Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
6/13/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 24Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál24%
×Draw22%
Polanka nad Odrou54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.26
Polanka nad Odrou
1.98

Polanka nad Odrou creates 57% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 63 away

creates per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.36
Polanka nad Odrou
1.78

allows per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.19
Polanka nad Odrou
1.16

finishing

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par
Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál ↓

Polanka nad Odrou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or draw
46%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or Polanka nad Odrou
78%
Draw or Polanka nad Odrou
76%

Winning margin

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
10%
Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
72%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
36%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
13%
Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
86%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
59%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
31%
Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

Polanka nad Odrou away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 1.36 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
24%
level
22%
Polanka nad Odrou scores more
54%

Polanka nad Odrou at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál face Polanka nad Odrou (4. liga - Divizie F)

4. liga - Divizie F returns with Slavoj Olympia Bruntál hosting Polanka nad Odrou. Match starts June 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál host Polanka nad Odrou at Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.