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Slavoj Mýto vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
PST
15:00
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
5/31/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 28Slavoj Mýto - tráva (Mýto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Slavoj Mýto61%
×Draw19%
Jindřichův Hradec20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Mýto
2.30
Jindřichův Hradec
1.23

Slavoj Mýto creates 87% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 56 away

creates per match

Slavoj Mýto
2.11
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Slavoj Mýto
1.33
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Mýto ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Slavoj Mýto or draw
80%
Slavoj Mýto or Jindřichův Hradec
81%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
39%

Winning margin

Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
39%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
90%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
67%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
40%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
71%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
35%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
76%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Mýto at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Mýto attack 2.11 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.30

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Slavoj Mýto defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Slavoj Mýto scores more
61%
level
19%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
20%

Slavoj Mýto at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Slavoj Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Mýto face Jindřichův Hradec (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Slavoj Mýto hosting Jindřichův Hradec. Match starts May 31, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Slavoj Mýto host Jindřichův Hradec at Slavoj Mýto - tráva (Mýto).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.