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Slavija vs Tekstilac Derventa — 1st League - RS 2019

Slavija
Slavija
FT
1 – 1
Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
11/9/20191st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 14Gradski Stadion SRC (Istočno Sarajevo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Slavija60%
×Draw24%
Tekstilac Derventa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavija
1.68
Tekstilac Derventa
0.72

Slavija creates 133% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 53 away

creates per match

Slavija
1.72
Tekstilac Derventa
0.64

allows per match

Slavija
0.80
Tekstilac Derventa
1.64

finishing

Slavija+0.00on par
Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Slavija or draw
84%
Slavija or Tekstilac Derventa
76%
Draw or Tekstilac Derventa
40%

Winning margin

Slavija wins by 2+
34%
Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Slavija 1+ goals
81%
Slavija 2+ goals
50%
Slavija 3+ goals
24%
Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
51%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
16%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Slavija (draw refunded)
79%
Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.80 · 102 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija attack 1.72 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.68

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Slavija defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slavija scores more
60%
level
24%
Tekstilac Derventa scores more
16%

Slavija at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slavija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavija vs Tekstilac Derventa

Slavija and Tekstilac Derventa drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion SRC (Istočno Sarajevo).