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Slavija vs Podrinje Janja — 1st League - RS 2019

Slavija
Slavija
FT
0 – 0
Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
10/12/20191st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 10Gradski Stadion SRC (Istočno Sarajevo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Slavija66%
×Draw20%
Podrinje Janja14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavija
2.06
Podrinje Janja
0.80

Slavija creates 157% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 54 away

creates per match

Slavija
1.72
Podrinje Janja
0.80

allows per match

Slavija
0.80
Podrinje Janja
2.41

finishing

Slavija+0.00on par
Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija ↓

Podrinje Janja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slavija or draw
86%
Slavija or Podrinje Janja
80%
Draw or Podrinje Janja
34%

Winning margin

Slavija wins by 2+
42%
Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Slavija 1+ goals
87%
Slavija 2+ goals
61%
Slavija 3+ goals
34%
Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
55%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
19%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Slavija (draw refunded)
83%
Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.80 · 102 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija attack 1.72 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.06

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Slavija defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Slavija scores more
66%
level
20%
Podrinje Janja scores more
14%

Slavija at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Slavija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavija vs Podrinje Janja

Slavija and Podrinje Janja drew 0-0 in 1st League - RS on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion SRC (Istočno Sarajevo).