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Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna — First League 2018

Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
11/23/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion Slavija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Slavia Sofia38%
×Draw29%
Cherno More Varna33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia
1.17
Cherno More Varna
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 136 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia
1.24
Cherno More Varna
1.06

allows per match

Slavia Sofia
1.10
Cherno More Varna
1.10

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw
67%
Slavia Sofia or Cherno More Varna
71%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
62%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
16%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
69%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
33%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
11%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
66%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
29%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
53%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 138 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.24 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more
38%
level
29%
Cherno More Varna scores more
33%

Slavia Sofia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Slavia Sofia 0–1 Cherno More Varna

Cherno More Varna beat Slavia Sofia 1-0 in First League on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Slavija in Sofia.