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Slavia Sofia vs Beroe — First League 2018

Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Beroe
Beroe
8/14/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Slavija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Slavia Sofia44%
×Draw27%
Beroe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia
1.35
Beroe
1.02

Slavia Sofia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 138 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia
1.24
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Slavia Sofia
1.10
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw
72%
Slavia Sofia or Beroe
73%
Draw or Beroe
56%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
21%
Beroe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
74%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
39%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
15%
Beroe 1+ goals
64%
Beroe 2+ goals
27%
Beroe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
61%
Beroe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 138 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.24 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Beroe attack 0.93 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more
44%
level
27%
Beroe scores more
28%

Slavia Sofia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Sofia vs Beroe

Slavia Sofia beat Beroe 3-2 in First League on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Slavija in Sofia.