Slavia Praha vs Zlin: Preview & Prediction

Slavia Praha

Preview

14:00

Zlin

3/6/2027

Czech Liga · Round 24Fortuna Arena

Big match

73%

Slavia Praha

model favours

73%18%9%

Slavia Praha score first in only 32% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

41%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Slavia Praha73%

×Draw18%

Zlin9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchZlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.63

Slavia Praha

2.19

Zlin

0.63

Slavia Praha creates 248% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 104 away

2.65

creates per match

0.79

0.47

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.65

Zlin

0.79

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.47

Zlin

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Zlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

91%

Slavia Praha or Zlin

82%

Draw or Zlin

27%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

48%

Zlin wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

89%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

64%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

37%

Zlin 1+ goals

47%

Zlin 2+ goals

13%

Zlin 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

89%

Zlin (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.47 · 124 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.65 + Zlin defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.19

Zlin attack 0.79 + Slavia Praha defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

73%

level

18%

Zlin scores more

9%

Slavia Praha at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

73% of Slavia Praha’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Zlin score first in only 33% of matches
Slavia Praha have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
39% of Zlin’s goals come after the 75th minute
28% of Zlin’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
Style contrast — Slavia Praha play Possession-dominant, Zlin Direct / counter-attacking