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Slavia Praha vs Zlin — Czech Liga 2019

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zlin
Zlin
L. Masopust 74'
6/14/2020Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 30Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Slavia Praha73%
×Draw18%
Zlin9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.19
Zlin
0.63

Slavia Praha creates 248% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 104 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.65
Zlin
0.79

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.47
Zlin
1.72

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Zlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
91%
Slavia Praha or Zlin
82%
Draw or Zlin
27%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
48%
Zlin wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
89%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
64%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
37%
Zlin 1+ goals
47%
Zlin 2+ goals
13%
Zlin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
89%
Zlin (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.47 · 124 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.65 + Zlin defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.19

Zlin attack 0.79 + Slavia Praha defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
73%
level
18%
Zlin scores more
9%

Slavia Praha at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
V. Chanturishvili
45'
O. Baco
45'
C. Conde
46'
O. Kudela← L. Takacs
49'
T. Holes
55'
L. Bartosak
58'
L. Bartosak← A. Fantis
67'
J. Boril
68'
T. Holes← I. Traore
74'
L. Masopust↳ N. Stanciu
75'
V. Chanturishvili← L. Jawo
79'
P. Musa← M. Frydrych
81'
R. Matejov← M. Cedidla
81'
J. Janetzky← P. Martinez
86'
N. Stanciu← P. Hellebrand
90+2'
A. Dzafic

Shots

13Slavia

Statistics

SlaviaZlin
Overview
13Total Shots4
16Corners3
5Fouls21
Shots
13Total Shots4
4On Target0
9Off Target4
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
5Fouls21
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
6Offsides1

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 1–0 Zlin

Slavia Praha beat Zlin 1-0 in Czech Liga on June 14, 2020.

Goals: L. Masopust (74').

The match was played at Sinobo Stadium in Praha.