Slavia Praha 3–0 Teplice: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Teplice

O. Kúdela 90+2'

P. Ševčík 89'

T. Souček 29' (pen)

11/10/2019

Czech Liga · Round 16Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Slavia Praha64%

×Draw20%

Teplice16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchTeplice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.93

Slavia Praha

2.10

Teplice

0.93

Slavia Praha creates 126% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

2.64

creates per match

1.04

0.81

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.64

Teplice

1.04

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.81

Teplice

1.57

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.03on par

Teplice+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Teplice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

84%

Slavia Praha or Teplice

80%

Draw or Teplice

36%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

40%

Teplice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

88%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

62%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

35%

Teplice 1+ goals

61%

Teplice 2+ goals

24%

Teplice 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

80%

Teplice (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.81 · 18 matches

Teplice away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.64 + Teplice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.10

Teplice attack 1.04 + Slavia Praha defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

64%

level

20%

Teplice scores more

16%

Slavia Praha at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

T. SoučekPenalty

39'

Jakub Mareš

45'

Jan Shejbal

53'

Abdulla Yusuf Helal

61'

M. Škoda← Abdulla Yusuf Helal

69'

E. Nazarov← P. Vyhnal

69'

T. Kučera← P. Kodeš

75'

P. Ševčík← L. Masopust

82'

Ibrahim Traore← N. Stanciu

87'

89'

90'

90+2'

Statistics

SlaviaTeplice

Overview

7Corners0

Discipline

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0