Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha: Preview & Prediction

Slavia Praha

Preview

14:00

Sparta Praha

2/6/2027

Czech Liga · Round 20Fortuna Arena

Big match

56%

Slavia Praha

model favours

56%21%23%

Sparta Praha score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

65%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Slavia Praha56%

×Draw21%

Sparta Praha23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.26

Slavia Praha

2.10

Sparta Praha

1.26

Slavia Praha creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

2.72

creates per match

1.71

0.82

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.72

Sparta Praha

1.71

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.82

Sparta Praha

1.48

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Slavia Praha-0.01on par

Sparta Praha-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Sparta Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

77%

Slavia Praha or Sparta Praha

79%

Draw or Sparta Praha

44%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

34%

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

88%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

62%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

35%

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

72%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

36%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

71%

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.48 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.72 + Sparta Praha defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.10

Sparta Praha attack 1.71 + Slavia Praha defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

56%

level

21%

Sparta Praha scores more

23%

Slavia Praha at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Slavia Praha score first in only 32% of matches
73% of Slavia Praha’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Top-of-the-table clash — Slavia Praha 1 vs Sparta Praha 2
Sparta Praha win just 58% against the top half (vs 88% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
25% of Slavia Praha’s goals come in the first 15 minutes