Slavia Praha 2–1 Sparta Praha: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sparta Praha

C. Zafeiris 22'

M. Chytil 2'

A. Rrahmani 65'

10/6/2024

Czech Liga · Round 11Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Slavia Praha57%

×Draw21%

Sparta Praha22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.19

Slavia Praha

2.05

Sparta Praha

1.19

Slavia Praha creates 72% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

2.64

creates per match

1.57

0.81

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.64

Sparta Praha

1.57

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.81

Sparta Praha

1.46

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.03on par

Sparta Praha-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Sparta Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

78%

Slavia Praha or Sparta Praha

79%

Draw or Sparta Praha

43%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

34%

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

87%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

61%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

33%

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

70%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

33%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

72%

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.81 · 18 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.64 + Sparta Praha defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sparta Praha attack 1.57 + Slavia Praha defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

57%

level

21%

Sparta Praha scores more

22%

Slavia Praha at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Zafeiris

Slavia Praha · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

M. Chytil↳ E. Diouf

19'

Matěj Ryneš

22'

C. Zafeiris↳ O. Dorley

46'

L. Haraslín← V. Olatunji

52'

60'

60'

61'

63'

A. Rrahmani← E. Krasniqi

65'

A. Rrahmani↳ L. Haraslín

71'

Kaan Kairinen

72'

El Hadji Malick Diouf

74'

J. Zelený← M. Ryneš

82'

C. Wallem← D. Douděra

83'

M. Solbakken← Q. Laçi

83'

K. Daněk← V. Birmančević

86'

87'

89'

89'

90+4'

90+1'

90+8'

90+7'

Lukáš ProvodCard upgrade

90+8'

90+4'

90+3'

90+3'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaSparta

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots12

1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.72

5Corners1

23Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots12

5On Target4

5Off Target3

4Blocked5

8Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

309Total Passes334

220Accurate Passes238

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls21

7Yellow Cards8

1Red Cards1