Slavia Praha 4–0 Sparta Praha: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Sparta Praha

P. Olayinka 45+3'

L. Masopust 30'

J. Hromada 12'

V. Jurečka 5'

10/23/2022

Czech Liga · Round 13Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Slavia Praha59%

×Draw21%

Sparta Praha20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.15

Slavia Praha

2.10

Sparta Praha

1.15

Slavia Praha creates 83% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 7 away

2.75

creates per match

1.57

0.73

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.75

Sparta Praha

1.57

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.73

Sparta Praha

1.46

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.38scores more

Sparta Praha-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Sparta Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

80%

Slavia Praha or Sparta Praha

79%

Draw or Sparta Praha

41%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

36%

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

88%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

62%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

35%

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

68%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

32%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

74%

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.73 · 23 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.75 + Sparta Praha defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.10

Sparta Praha attack 1.57 + Slavia Praha defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

59%

level

21%

Sparta Praha scores more

20%

Slavia Praha at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

5'

12'

30'

39'

M. Minchev← T. Wiesner

39'

A. Karabec← K. Daněk

45+3'

P. Olayinka↳ V. Jurečka

60'

J. Zelený← L. Sadílek

60'

T. Čvančara← L. Haraslín

64'

66'

74'

74'

75'

77'

80'

83'

89'

O. Kričfaluši← O. Dorley

89'

Ewerton← O. Lingr

Slavia4-2-3-1

Sparta4-2-3-1

9

▼

Kuchta

22

▼

Haraslín

13

▼

Daněk

18

▼

Sadílek

8

Pavelka

28

▼

17

41

25

19

1

1

33

4

30

21

▼

Douděra

19

▼

Dorley

25

⚽

▼

Hromada

9

⚽

Olayinka

32

▼

Lingr

8

⚽

Masopust

15

⚽A

▼

Jurečka

Manager: J. Trpišovský

66'▲M. Usor←▼D. Douděra

74'▲S. Tecl←▼V. Jurečka

75'▲C. Tiéhi←▼J. Hromada

89'▲O. Kričfaluši←▼O. Dorley

89'▲Ewerton←▼O. Lingr

Slavia Praha substitutes

16Usor11Tecl5Tiéhi41Kričfaluši22Ewerton20Sor35Jurásek13Nikl34Sirotník29Šmiga31Dvořák

Manager: B. Priske

39'▲M. Minchev←▼T. Wiesner

39'▲A. Karabec←▼K. Daněk

60'▲J. Zelený←▼L. Sadílek

60'▲T. Čvančara←▼L. Haraslín

74'▲M. Sáček←▼J. Kuchta

Sparta Praha substitutes

11Minchev10Karabec30Zelený7Čvančara16Sáček27Panák24Vorel39Juliš29Heča37II

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha

Slavia Praha beat Sparta Praha 4-0 in Czech Liga on October 23, 2022.

Goals: V. Jurečka (5'), J. Hromada (12'), L. Masopust (30'), P. Olayinka (45+3').

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.

Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Sparta Praha