Slavia Praha 3–0 Slovan Liberec: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Slovan Liberec

S. Tecl 29'

P. Olayinka 23'

A. Ousou 16'

10/2/2022

Czech Liga · Round 10Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Slavia Praha72%

×Draw17%

Slovan Liberec11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchSlovan Liberec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.76

Slavia Praha

2.31

Slovan Liberec

0.76

Slavia Praha creates 204% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

2.69

creates per match

0.80

0.71

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.69

Slovan Liberec

0.80

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.71

Slovan Liberec

1.93

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Slavia Praha-0.02on par

Slovan Liberec+0.09on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Slovan Liberec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

89%

Slavia Praha or Slovan Liberec

83%

Draw or Slovan Liberec

28%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

48%

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

90%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

67%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

40%

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

53%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

18%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

87%

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.69 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.31

Slovan Liberec attack 0.80 + Slavia Praha defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

72%

level

17%

Slovan Liberec scores more

11%

Slavia Praha at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Ousou↳ P. Ševčík

23'

P. Olayinka↳ P. Ševčík

28'

29'

35'

45+2'

60'

I. Varfolomeev← M. Fukala

63'

M. Usor← P. Ševčík

63'

D. Preisler← K. Mészáros

64'

V. Jurečka← Ewerton

75'

O. Dorley← L. Provod

75'

M. Rabušic← D. Višinský

75'

T. Polyák← C. Frýdek

76'

Y. Sor← S. Tecl

85'

Moses Usor

88'

M. Nikl← P. Olayinka

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SlaviaSlovan

Overview

69%Possession31%

14Total Shots4

7Corners1

18Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots4

9On Target3

Passing

69%Possession31%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0