Slavia Praha 2–0 Slovácko: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slovácko

V. Jurečka 90'

M. Jurásek 78'

10/21/2023

Czech Liga · Round 12Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Slavia Praha72%

×Draw18%

Slovácko10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchSlovácko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.64

Slavia Praha

2.13

Slovácko

0.64

Slavia Praha creates 233% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

2.69

creates per match

0.52

0.76

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.69

Slovácko

0.52

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.76

Slovácko

1.58

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Slavia Praha-0.06on par

Slovácko+0.05on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Slovácko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

90%

Slavia Praha or Slovácko

82%

Draw or Slovácko

28%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

47%

Slovácko wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

88%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

63%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

35%

Slovácko 1+ goals

47%

Slovácko 2+ goals

14%

Slovácko 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

88%

Slovácko (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.76 · 16 matches

Slovácko away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.58 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.69 + Slovácko defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Slovácko attack 0.52 + Slavia Praha defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

72%

level

18%

Slovácko scores more

10%

Slavia Praha at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

21'

29'

41'

45+2'

45+2'

46'

M. Jurásek← B. Ogungbayi

46'

O. Dorley← J. Hromada

46'

D. Douděra← M. Tomič

60'

V. Jurečka← M. Chytil

64'

D. Holzer← P. Juroška

64'

M. Petržela← O. Mihálik

75'

M. Tijani← L. Masopust

78'

M. Jurásek

84'

Petr Reinberk

85'

F. Vecheta← Merchas Doski

85'

J. Kalabiška← V. Sinyavskiy

90'

V. Jurečka

Shots

Statistics

SlaviaSlovácko

Overview

10Total Shots2

9Corners0

13Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots2

3On Target1

7Off Target1

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 2–0 Slovácko

Slavia Praha beat Slovácko 2-0 in Czech Liga on October 21, 2023.

Goals: M. Jurásek (78'), V. Jurečka (90').

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.

Slavia Praha vs Slovácko — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 2–0 Slovácko