Slavia Praha 4–0 Slovácko: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Slovácko

V. Jurečka 89', 61', 41' (pen), 24'

5/27/2023

Czech Liga · Championship Round - 5Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Slavia Praha73%

×Draw17%

Slovácko9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchSlovácko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.65

Slavia Praha

2.23

Slovácko

0.65

Slavia Praha creates 243% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

2.80

creates per match

0.51

0.79

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.80

Slovácko

0.51

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.79

Slovácko

1.67

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.15scores more

Slovácko-0.01on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Slovácko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

91%

Slavia Praha or Slovácko

83%

Draw or Slovácko

27%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

49%

Slovácko wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

89%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

65%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

38%

Slovácko 1+ goals

48%

Slovácko 2+ goals

14%

Slovácko 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

89%

Slovácko (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.79 · 21 matches

Slovácko away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.67 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.80 + Slovácko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Slovácko attack 0.51 + Slavia Praha defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

73%

level

17%

Slovácko scores more

9%

Slavia Praha at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Michal Kadlec

24'

V. Jurečka

34'

Merchas Doski

41'

V. JurečkaPenalty

46'

F. Vecheta← P. Brandner

46'

J. Kalabiška← Merchas Doski

61'

V. Jurečka↳ S. Tecl

67'

Filip Vecheta

67'

V. Sinyavskiy← P. Juroška

72'

O. Lingr← L. Provod

72'

J. Bořil← D. Douděra

72'

D. Pech← C. Zafeiris

78'

D. Šmiga← P. Olayinka

80'

P. Šimko← D. Holzer

84'

M. van Buren← S. Tecl

88'

M. Kudela← M. Trávník

89'

V. Jurečka↳ D. Jurásek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaSlovácko

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots4

2.30Expected Goals (xG)0.40

13Corners3

8Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots4

8On Target2

3Off Target2

3Blocked0

10Inside Box1

4Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

443Total Passes243

360Accurate Passes177

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Slovácko

Slavia Praha beat Slovácko 4-0 in Czech Liga on May 27, 2023.

Goals: V. Jurečka (24', 41' pen, 61', 89').

Slavia Praha controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.

Slavia Praha vs Slovácko — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Slovácko