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Slavia Praha vs Slovácko — Czech Liga 2019

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Slovácko
Slovácko
9/14/2019Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 9Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Slavia Praha74%
×Draw17%
Slovácko9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.24
Slovácko
0.63

Slavia Praha creates 256% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.81
Slovácko
0.51

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.74
Slovácko
1.67

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.27scores more
Slovácko-0.01on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Slovácko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
91%
Slavia Praha or Slovácko
83%
Draw or Slovácko
26%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
50%
Slovácko wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
89%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
65%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
38%
Slovácko 1+ goals
47%
Slovácko 2+ goals
13%
Slovácko 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
89%
Slovácko (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.81, concedes 0.74 · 25 matches

Slovácko away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.67 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.81 + Slovácko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.24

Slovácko attack 0.51 + Slavia Praha defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
74%
level
17%
Slovácko scores more
9%

Slavia Praha at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Slovácko

Slavia Praha beat Slovácko 3-0 in Czech Liga on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Sinobo Stadium in Praha.