Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc: Preview & Prediction

Slavia Praha

Preview

13:00

Sigma Olomouc

4/17/2027

Czech Liga · Round 29Fortuna Arena

Big match

64%

Slavia Praha

model favours

64%21%15%

Sigma Olomouc are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Slavia Praha64%

×Draw21%

Sigma Olomouc15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.86

Slavia Praha

2.01

Sigma Olomouc

0.86

Slavia Praha creates 134% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 119 away

2.65

creates per match

1.26

0.47

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.65

Sigma Olomouc

1.26

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.47

Sigma Olomouc

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Sigma Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

85%

Slavia Praha or Sigma Olomouc

79%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc

36%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

39%

Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

87%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

59%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

32%

Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals

58%

Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals

21%

Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

81%

Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.47 · 124 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.65 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.01

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + Slavia Praha defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

64%

level

21%

Sigma Olomouc scores more

15%

Slavia Praha at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Sigma Olomouc have won 3 in a row
Slavia Praha score first in only 32% of matches
73% of Slavia Praha’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Slavia Praha have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
Sigma Olomouc win just 29% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)
25% of Slavia Praha’s goals come in the first 15 minutes