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Slavia Praha vs Sigma Olomouc — Czech Liga 2019

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sigma Olomouc
Sigma Olomouc
8/10/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 4Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Slavia Praha64%
×Draw21%
Sigma Olomouc15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.01
Sigma Olomouc
0.86

Slavia Praha creates 134% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 119 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.65
Sigma Olomouc
1.26

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.47
Sigma Olomouc
1.37

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Sigma Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
85%
Slavia Praha or Sigma Olomouc
79%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc
36%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
39%
Sigma Olomouc wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
87%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
59%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
32%
Sigma Olomouc 1+ goals
58%
Sigma Olomouc 2+ goals
21%
Sigma Olomouc 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
81%
Sigma Olomouc (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.47 · 124 matches

Sigma Olomouc away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.65 + Sigma Olomouc defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.01

Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 + Slavia Praha defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
64%
level
21%
Sigma Olomouc scores more
15%

Slavia Praha at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 2–0 Sigma Olomouc

Slavia Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 2-0 in Czech Liga on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.