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Slavia Praha vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Plzen
Plzen
9/21/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 9Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Slavia Praha67%
×Draw18%
Plzen15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.38
Plzen
1.04

Slavia Praha creates 129% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.69
Plzen
1.37

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.71
Plzen
2.07

finishing

Slavia Praha-0.02on par
Plzen+0.13scores more

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
85%
Slavia Praha or Plzen
82%
Draw or Plzen
33%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
44%
Plzen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
91%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
68%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
42%
Plzen 1+ goals
65%
Plzen 2+ goals
28%
Plzen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
82%
Plzen (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.07 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.69 + Plzen defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.38

Plzen attack 1.37 + Slavia Praha defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
67%
level
18%
Plzen scores more
15%

Slavia Praha at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 3–0 Plzen

Slavia Praha beat Plzen 3-0 in Czech Liga on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.