Slavia Praha 1–1 Plzen: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Slavia Praha

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Plzen

O. Kúdela 90+1' (pen)

J. Beauguel 90+5' (pen)

5/1/2022

Czech Liga · Championship Round - 2Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Slavia Praha67%

×Draw18%

Plzen15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.08

Slavia Praha

2.42

Plzen

1.08

Slavia Praha creates 124% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

2.69

creates per match

1.41

0.76

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.69

Plzen

1.41

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.76

Plzen

2.14

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Slavia Praha-0.06on par

Plzen+0.02on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Plzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

85%

Slavia Praha or Plzen

82%

Draw or Plzen

33%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

44%

Plzen wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

91%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

69%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

43%

Plzen 1+ goals

66%

Plzen 2+ goals

29%

Plzen 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

81%

Plzen (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.76 · 16 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.69 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.42

Plzen attack 1.41 + Slavia Praha defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

67%

level

18%

Plzen scores more

15%

Slavia Praha at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Milan Havel

63'

Y. Sor← S. Tecl

63'

64'

65'

79'

83'

D. Jurásek← J. Hromada

83'

M. Talovierov← T. Holeš

90+5'

90+2'

90+3'

90'

90+2'

90+3'

90+1'

O. KúdelaPenalty

90+5'

J. BeauguelPenalty

Shots

Statistics

SlaviaPlzen

Overview

7Total Shots7

3Corners2

18Fouls20

Shots

7Total Shots7

4On Target4

3Off Target3

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls20

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

4Offsides2

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Plzen

Slavia Praha and Plzen drew 1-1 in Czech Liga on May 1, 2022.

Goals: O. Kúdela (90+1' pen), J. Beauguel (90+5' pen).

The match was played at Sinobo Stadium in Praha.

Slavia Praha vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Plzen