Slavia Praha vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Slavia Praha65%
Plzen16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Slavia Praha creates 115% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Slavia Praha ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.81 · 18 matches
Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Slavia Praha attack 2.64 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.39
Plzen attack 1.41 + Slavia Praha defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 65%?"
Slavia Praha at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 65% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Slavia PrahaPlzen
Sparta Praha
FK Jablonec
Slovan Liberec
Baník Ostrava
České Budějovice
Bohemians 1905
Slovácko
Mlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
Zlin
Karviná
Opava
PříbramIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shots
Statistics
Slavia Praha host Plzen on Wednesday, 24 June 2020 at 18:00. The match is part of the Czech Liga 2019/2020 season.
Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 1–0 Plzen
Slavia Praha beat Plzen 1-0 in Czech Liga on June 24, 2020.
Goals: P. Sevcik (69').
The match was played at Sinobo Stadium in Praha.