Slavia Praha 3–0 Pardubice: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pardubice

M. Chytil 74', 72', 66'

2/25/2024

Czech Liga · Round 22Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Slavia Praha71%

×Draw18%

Pardubice11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchPardubice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.76

Slavia Praha

2.23

Pardubice

0.76

Slavia Praha creates 193% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 106 away

2.65

creates per match

1.05

0.47

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.65

Pardubice

1.05

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.47

Pardubice

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Pardubice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Pardubice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

89%

Slavia Praha or Pardubice

82%

Draw or Pardubice

29%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

47%

Pardubice wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

89%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

65%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

38%

Pardubice 1+ goals

53%

Pardubice 2+ goals

18%

Pardubice 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

86%

Pardubice (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.47 · 124 matches

Pardubice away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.65 + Pardubice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.23

Pardubice attack 1.05 + Slavia Praha defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

71%

level

18%

Pardubice scores more

11%

Slavia Praha at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Chytil

Slavia Praha · F

9.6

Match Events

41'

Vojtech Patrak

45+6'

Michal Surzyn

46'

L. Provod← C. Zafeiris

46'

M. Chytil← M. van Buren

56'

Michal Hlavatý

63'

O. Zmrzlý← E. Diouf

63'

L. Masopust← C. Wallem

66'

M. Chytil↳ L. Masopust

68'

T. Zlatohlávek← L. Krobot

70'

T. Holeš← I. Ogbu

72'

M. Chytil

74'

M. Chytil↳ L. Provod

76'

E. Tischler← O. Kukučka

76'

V. Sychra← L. Kissiedou

76'

K. Vacek← V. Patrák

84'

Š. Míšek← K. Daněk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaPardubice

Overview

68%Possession32%

32Total Shots4

4.02Expected Goals (xG)0.09

15Corners1

13Fouls12

Shots

32Total Shots4

15On Target1

9Off Target2

8Blocked1

22Inside Box0

10Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

554Total Passes269

466Accurate Passes164

84%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves11

Discipline

13Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0