Slavia Praha 2–0 Hradec Králové: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hradec Králové

M. Chytil 70'

M. van Buren 4'

7/22/2023

Czech Liga · Round 1Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Slavia Praha75%

×Draw16%

Hradec Králové10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchHradec Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

0.81

Slavia Praha

2.55

Hradec Králové

0.81

Slavia Praha creates 215% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

2.76

creates per match

0.86

0.77

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.76

Hradec Králové

0.86

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.77

Hradec Králové

2.34

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.32scores more

Hradec Králové-0.06on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Hradec Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

90%

Slavia Praha or Hradec Králové

84%

Draw or Hradec Králové

25%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

53%

Hradec Králové wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

92%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

72%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

46%

Hradec Králové 1+ goals

56%

Hradec Králové 2+ goals

19%

Hradec Králové 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

88%

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.77 · 24 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.34 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.76 + Hradec Králové defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.55

Hradec Králové attack 0.86 + Slavia Praha defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

75%

level

16%

Hradec Králové scores more

10%

Slavia Praha at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. van Buren↳ I. Schranz

39'

Václav Pilař

46'

P. Juliš← V. Pilař

62'

L. Provod← I. Schranz

62'

O. Lingr← M. Jurásek

62'

M. Chytil← V. Jurečka

64'

68'

70'

72'

80'

P. Ševčík← C. Zafeiris

80'

M. Leibl← L. Krejčí

86'

J. Rada← J. Kučera

86'

P. Pudhorocký← D. Vašulín

87'

L. Masopust← D. Douděra

Shots

Statistics

SlaviaHradec

Overview

12Total Shots5

3.12Expected Goals (xG)1.53

8Corners2

8Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots5

5On Target2

6Off Target2

1Blocked1

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0