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Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové — Czech Liga 2019

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
A. Gabriel 19' (OG)
J. Kučera 7'
4/30/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 30Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Slavia Praha66%
×Draw20%
Hradec Králové14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.02
Hradec Králové
0.78

Slavia Praha creates 159% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 88 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.65
Hradec Králové
1.09

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.47
Hradec Králové
1.39

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Hradec Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
86%
Slavia Praha or Hradec Králové
80%
Draw or Hradec Králové
34%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
41%
Hradec Králové wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
87%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
60%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
33%
Hradec Králové 1+ goals
54%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
18%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
83%
Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.47 · 124 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.65 + Hradec Králové defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hradec Králové attack 1.09 + Slavia Praha defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
66%
level
20%
Hradec Králové scores more
14%

Slavia Praha at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
J. Kučera
19'
A. GabrielOwn goal
31'
M. van Buren← P. Olayinka
38'
Matěj Ryneš
46'
L. Masopust← A. Ousou
60'
D. Jurásek← I. Schranz
60'
M. Jurásek← D. Douděra
72'
I. Traoré← L. Masopust
78'
P. Pudhorocký← M. Leibl
83'
Igoh Ogbu
85'
Christos Zafeiris
90+9'
Pavol Bajza
90+3'
J. Rada← P. Pudhorocký
90'
M. Koubek← M. Trusa

Shots

11Slavia

Statistics

SlaviaHradec
Overview
11Total Shots4
8Corners2
6Fouls19
Shots
11Total Shots4
5On Target3
3Off Target1
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls19
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové

Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové drew 1-1 in Czech Liga on April 30, 2023.

Goals: J. Kučera (7'), A. Gabriel (19' o.g.).

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.