Slavia Praha 4–1 Hradec Králové: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hradec Králové

I. Traoré 60'

J. Kuchta 50', 7'

D. Samek 40'

J. Kateřiňák 90'

9/26/2021

Czech Liga · Round 9Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Slavia Praha66%

×Draw20%

Hradec Králové14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchHradec Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.78

Slavia Praha

2.02

Hradec Králové

0.78

Slavia Praha creates 159% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 88 away

2.65

creates per match

1.09

0.47

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.65

Hradec Králové

1.09

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.47

Hradec Králové

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Hradec Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

86%

Slavia Praha or Hradec Králové

80%

Draw or Hradec Králové

34%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

41%

Hradec Králové wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

87%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

60%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

33%

Hradec Králové 1+ goals

54%

Hradec Králové 2+ goals

18%

Hradec Králové 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

83%

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.47 · 124 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.65 + Hradec Králové defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hradec Králové attack 1.09 + Slavia Praha defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

66%

level

20%

Hradec Králové scores more

14%

Slavia Praha at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Kuchta

40'

D. Samek↳ P. Ševčík

45+2'

Jakub Rada

46'

E. Prekop← D. Vašulín

46'

P. Vízek← V. Fendrich

50'

J. Kuchta↳ L. Masopust

53'

J. Klíma← D. Donát

59'

O. Lingr← L. Masopust

59'

I. Traoré← P. Ševčík

60'

I. Traoré↳ A. Bah

61'

J. Kateřiňák← J. Rada

66'

Otto Urma

67'

M. Krmenčík← N. Stanciu

78'

S. Tecl← A. Bah

79'

79'

86'

90+3'

90'

J. Kateřiňák↳ A. Vlkanova

Shots

Statistics

SlaviaHradec

Overview

10Total Shots8

2Corners3

6Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots8

6On Target3

4Off Target5

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls17

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1