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Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
Preview
13:00
FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
4/3/2027Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 27Fortuna Arena
Big match
67%
Slavia Praha
model favours
67%18%14%

Both teams score in 83% of FK Jablonec’s matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Slavia Praha67%
×Draw18%
FK Jablonec14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.36
FK Jablonec
0.99

Slavia Praha creates 138% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.69
FK Jablonec
1.27

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.71
FK Jablonec
2.03

finishing

Slavia Praha-0.02on par
FK Jablonec+0.23scores more

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

FK Jablonec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
86%
Slavia Praha or FK Jablonec
82%
Draw or FK Jablonec
33%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
45%
FK Jablonec wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
90%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
68%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
41%
FK Jablonec 1+ goals
63%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
26%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
82%
FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.03 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.69 + FK Jablonec defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.36

FK Jablonec attack 1.27 + Slavia Praha defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
67%
level
18%
FK Jablonec scores more
14%

Slavia Praha at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Slavia Praha score first in only 32% of matches
  • 73% of Slavia Praha’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Slavia Praha 1 vs FK Jablonec 4
  • Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • 25% of Slavia Praha’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Slavia Praha
Possession-dominant
FK Jablonec
Balanced
59%Possession51%
77%Pass accuracy77%
18.2ShotsBiggest gap11.8
2.18xG1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Slavia PrahaFK Jablonec

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
Slavia Praha
3
Draws
1
FK Jablonec
Avg goals: 4.5BTTS: 90%
5–12–24–31–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Praha
WLDL
Jablonec
WLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavia Praha face FK Jablonec (Czech Liga)

Czech Liga returns with Slavia Praha hosting FK Jablonec. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Slavia Praha host FK Jablonec at Fortuna Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.