Slavia Praha 4–3 FK Jablonec: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

FK Jablonec

V. Jurečka 90+7', 24'

C. Wallem 11', 3'

J. Martinec 48'

J. Chramosta 14'

V. Tchanturishvili 5'

2/11/2024

Czech Liga · Round 20Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Slavia Praha67%

×Draw18%

FK Jablonec15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchFK Jablonec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.06

Slavia Praha

2.45

FK Jablonec

1.06

Slavia Praha creates 131% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

2.72

creates per match

1.31

0.82

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.72

FK Jablonec

1.31

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.82

FK Jablonec

2.17

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Slavia Praha-0.01on par

FK Jablonec+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

FK Jablonec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

85%

Slavia Praha or FK Jablonec

82%

Draw or FK Jablonec

33%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

45%

FK Jablonec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

91%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

70%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

44%

FK Jablonec 1+ goals

65%

FK Jablonec 2+ goals

29%

FK Jablonec 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

82%

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.17 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.72 + FK Jablonec defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.45

FK Jablonec attack 1.31 + Slavia Praha defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

67%

level

18%

FK Jablonec scores more

15%

Slavia Praha at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

C. Wallem

Slavia Praha · M

9.0

Match Events

3'

C. Wallem↳ P. Ševčík

5'

V. Tchanturishvili↳ M. Černák

11'

C. Wallem↳ L. Masopust

14'

J. Chramosta↳ M. Polidar

24'

V. Jurečka↳ M. Chytil

42'

Miloš Kratochvíl

46'

B. Kanakimana← M. Černák

48'

J. Martinec↳ D. Pleštil

58'

Jan Hanus

59'

D. Houska← D. Štěpánek

65'

M. van Buren← L. Provod

65'

O. Zmrzlý← L. Masopust

65'

I. Schranz← C. Wallem

69'

F. Souček← D. Pleštil

69'

V. Drchal← J. Chramosta

78'

79'

82'

83'

84'

T. Hübschman← J. Martinec

87'

Muhamed Tijani

90+10'

Ivan Schranz

90+7'

V. Jurečka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaFK

Overview

69%Possession31%

29Total Shots7

3.31Expected Goals (xG)1.65

10Corners1

15Fouls10

Shots

29Total Shots7

5On Target5

20Off Target0

4Blocked2

22Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

507Total Passes252

412Accurate Passes148

81%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 4–3 FK Jablonec

Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 4-3 in Czech Liga on February 11, 2024.

Goals: C. Wallem (3', 11'), V. Tchanturishvili (5'), J. Chramosta (14'), V. Jurečka (24', 90+7'), J. Martinec (48').

Slavia Praha controlled possession (69%) and registered 29 shots to 7.

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.

Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 4–3 FK Jablonec