Slavia Praha 5–1 FK Jablonec: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FK Jablonec

M. Jurásek 85', 76'

O. Lingr 67'

M. van Buren 65'

V. Jurečka 11'

V. Jovović 45+6'

1/29/2023

Czech Liga · Round 17Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Slavia Praha67%

×Draw18%

FK Jablonec15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchFK Jablonec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.06

Slavia Praha

2.41

FK Jablonec

1.06

Slavia Praha creates 127% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

2.64

creates per match

1.31

0.81

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.64

FK Jablonec

1.31

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.81

FK Jablonec

2.17

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.03on par

FK Jablonec+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

FK Jablonec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

85%

Slavia Praha or FK Jablonec

82%

Draw or FK Jablonec

33%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

44%

FK Jablonec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

91%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

69%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

43%

FK Jablonec 1+ goals

65%

FK Jablonec 2+ goals

29%

FK Jablonec 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

81%

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.81 · 18 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.17 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.64 + FK Jablonec defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.41

FK Jablonec attack 1.31 + Slavia Praha defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

67%

level

18%

FK Jablonec scores more

15%

Slavia Praha at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

V. Jurečka

45+6'

V. Jovović↳ J. Považanec

46'

M. Jurásek← V. Jurečka

46'

D. Douděra← I. Schranz

46'

D. Pleštil← V. Jovović

56'

Pavel Šulc

61'

M. van Buren← S. Tecl

65'

M. van Buren↳ P. Olayinka

67'

O. Lingr↳ M. van Buren

68'

J. Chramosta← D. Ikaunieks

72'

L. Provod← O. Lingr

76'

M. Jurásek↳ P. Olayinka

80'

Ewerton← P. Olayinka

80'

V. Patrák← M. Černák

85'

M. Jurásek

Shots

Statistics

SlaviaFK

Overview

21Total Shots7

9Corners4

18Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots7

10On Target5

7Blocked2

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1