Slavia Praha 2–1 České Budějovice: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

České Budějovice

J. Kuchta 43'

O. Lingr 15'

L. Skovajsa 76'

5/29/2021

Czech Liga · Round 34Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Slavia Praha74%

×Draw17%

České Budějovice10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.72

Slavia Praha

2.36

České Budějovice

0.72

Slavia Praha creates 228% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 102 away

2.65

creates per match

0.98

0.47

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.65

České Budějovice

0.98

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.47

České Budějovice

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

České Budějovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

České Budějovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

90%

Slavia Praha or České Budějovice

83%

Draw or České Budějovice

26%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

50%

České Budějovice wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

90%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

68%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

41%

České Budějovice 1+ goals

51%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

16%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

88%

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.47 · 124 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.65 + České Budějovice defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.36

České Budějovice attack 0.98 + Slavia Praha defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

74%

level

17%

České Budějovice scores more

10%

Slavia Praha at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

L. Skovajsa

15'

O. Lingr↳ I. Traore

43'

J. Kuchta↳ A. Bah

50'

F. Havelka

56'

K. Meszaros← M. Mrsic

63'

M. Alvir← J. Vitovec

64'

O. Lingr← M. Beran

71'

J. Vais← M. Valenta

74'

M. van Buren← A. Yusuf

76'

L. Skovajsa↳ P. Novak

84'

P. Olayinka← S. Tecl

84'

I. Traore← T. Kacharaba

90'

M. Valenta

Shots

Statistics

SlaviaČeské

Overview

10Total Shots6

10Corners4

15Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots6

4On Target2

6Off Target4

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2