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Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 — Czech Liga 2019

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905
D. Douděra 36'
P. Olayinka 31'
V. Jurečka 13'
4/22/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 28Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Slavia Praha60%
×Draw21%
Bohemians 190519%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.06
Bohemians 1905
1.05

Slavia Praha creates 96% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.64
Bohemians 1905
1.29

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.81
Bohemians 1905
1.49

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.03on par
Bohemians 1905-0.60scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Bohemians 1905 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
81%
Slavia Praha or Bohemians 1905
79%
Draw or Bohemians 1905
40%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
37%
Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
87%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
61%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
34%
Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
65%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
28%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
76%
Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.81 · 18 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.64 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.06

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.29 + Slavia Praha defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
60%
level
21%
Bohemians 1905 scores more
19%

Slavia Praha at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
V. Jurečka↳ L. Masopust
31'
P. Olayinka↳ C. Zafeiris
36'
D. Douděra↳ M. van Buren
46'
M. Dostál← J. Kovařík
46'
D. Puškáč← E. Prekop
63'
L. Provod← I. Schranz
64'
M. Jurásek← V. Jurečka
66'
J. Morávek← M. Hála
71'
D. Pech← D. Douděra
72'
S. Tecl← M. van Buren
77'
L. Mužík← V. Drchal
83'
Jan Vondra
88'
I. Traoré← C. Zafeiris
88'
M. Nový← A. Jánoš

Shots

12Slavia

Statistics

SlaviaBohemians
Overview
12Total Shots1
5Corners5
9Fouls5
Shots
12Total Shots1
4Off Target1
Discipline
9Fouls5
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905

Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 3-0 in Czech Liga on April 22, 2023.

Goals: V. Jurečka (13'), P. Olayinka (31'), D. Douděra (36').

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.