Slavia Praha 2–1 Bohemians 1905: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bohemians 1905

L. Provod 66'

A. Sima 7'

P. Hronek 68'

12/20/2020

Czech Liga · Round 13Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Slavia Praha62%

×Draw20%

Bohemians 190517%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchBohemians 1905

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.04

Slavia Praha

2.15

Bohemians 1905

1.04

Slavia Praha creates 107% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

2.80

creates per match

1.29

0.79

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.80

Bohemians 1905

1.29

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.79

Bohemians 1905

1.49

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.15scores more

Bohemians 1905-0.60scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Bohemians 1905 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

83%

Slavia Praha or Bohemians 1905

80%

Draw or Bohemians 1905

38%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

39%

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

88%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

63%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

36%

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

65%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

28%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

78%

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.79 · 21 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.80 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.15

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.29 + Slavia Praha defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

62%

level

20%

Bohemians 1905 scores more

17%

Slavia Praha at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

43'

55'

64'

65'

66'

68'

77'

77'

P. Osmančík← T. Necid

83'

J. Nečas← A. Vaníček

84'

T. Schumacher← M. Dostál

90+1'

S. Tecl← J. Kuchta

90+1'

R. Květ← J. Jindřišek

Shots

Statistics

SlaviaBohemians

Overview

12Total Shots6

6Corners4

22Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots6

5On Target4

7Off Target2

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 2–1 Bohemians 1905

Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 2-1 in Czech Liga on December 20, 2020.

Goals: A. Sima (7'), L. Provod (66'), P. Hronek (68').

The match was played at Sinobo Stadium in Praha.

Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Czech Liga: Slavia Praha 2–1 Bohemians 1905