Slavia Praha 4–0 Baník Ostrava: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Baník Ostrava

P. Ševčík 77'

S. Tecl 68'

T. Souček 52', 43'

11/2/2019

Czech Liga · Round 15Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Slavia Praha70%

×Draw18%

Baník Ostrava13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.89

Slavia Praha

2.36

Baník Ostrava

0.89

Slavia Praha creates 165% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

2.81

creates per match

1.04

0.74

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.81

Baník Ostrava

1.04

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.74

Baník Ostrava

1.91

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.27scores more

Baník Ostrava-0.04on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Baník Ostrava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

87%

Slavia Praha or Baník Ostrava

82%

Draw or Baník Ostrava

30%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

47%

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

90%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

68%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

41%

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

59%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

22%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

85%

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.81, concedes 0.74 · 25 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.81 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.36

Baník Ostrava attack 1.04 + Slavia Praha defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

70%

level

18%

Baník Ostrava scores more

13%

Slavia Praha at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

26'

36'

43'

46'

46'

52'

57'

57'

57'

60'

D. Granečný← N. Kuzmanovič

61'

Milan Jirasek

68'

S. Tecl

69'

Ibrahim Traore← N. Stanciu

73'

M. van Buren← P. Olayinka

76'

D. Holzer← R. Reiter

77'

P. Ševčík

79'

Abdulla Yusuf Helal← T. Souček

90'

Ladislav Takács

Statistics

SlaviaBaník

Overview

6Corners1

Discipline

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava

Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 4-0 in Czech Liga on November 2, 2019.

Goals: T. Souček (43', 52'), S. Tecl (68'), P. Ševčík (77').

The match was played at Sinobo Stadium in Praha.

Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava