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Slavia Praha U19 vs Pardubice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Slavia Praha U19
Slavia Praha U19
Preview
15:00
Pardubice U19
Pardubice U19
8/15/20261. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 2
41%
Slavia Praha U19
model favours
41%22%36%
1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Praha U1941%
×Draw22%
Pardubice U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha U19
1.79
Pardubice U19
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha U19
1.93
Pardubice U19
1.53

allows per match

Slavia Praha U19
1.80
Pardubice U19
1.65

finishing

Slavia Praha U19+0.00on par
Pardubice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha U19 ↓

Pardubice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Slavia Praha U19 or draw
64%
Slavia Praha U19 or Pardubice U19
78%
Draw or Pardubice U19
59%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha U19 wins by 2+
22%
Pardubice U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Slavia Praha U19 1+ goals
83%
Slavia Praha U19 2+ goals
53%
Slavia Praha U19 3+ goals
26%
Pardubice U19 1+ goals
81%
Pardubice U19 2+ goals
50%
Pardubice U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Pardubice U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Pardubice U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha U19 attack 1.93 + Pardubice U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.79

Pardubice U19 attack 1.53 + Slavia Praha U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slavia Praha U19 scores more
41%
level
22%
Pardubice U19 scores more
36%

Slavia Praha U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slavia Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U19
LLDLL
U19
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavia Praha U19 face Pardubice U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Slavia Praha U19 hosting Pardubice U19. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.