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Skopje vs Vardar Skopje — First League 2019

Skopje
Skopje
Preview
15:00
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
10/9/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 9
37%
Vardar Skopje
model favours
33%31%37%

Vardar Skopje score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Skopje33%
×Draw31%
Vardar Skopje37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skopje
0.98
Vardar Skopje
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 78 away

creates per match

Skopje
0.84
Vardar Skopje
1.14

allows per match

Skopje
0.97
Vardar Skopje
1.13

finishing

Skopje+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skopje ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Skopje or draw
63%
Skopje or Vardar Skopje
69%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
67%

Winning margin

Skopje wins by 2+
12%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Skopje 1+ goals
62%
Skopje 2+ goals
26%
Skopje 3+ goals
8%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
65%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
28%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Skopje (draw refunded)
47%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skopje at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skopje attack 0.84 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Skopje defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Skopje scores more
33%
level
31%
Vardar Skopje scores more
37%

Vardar Skopje at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Skopje win just 8% against the top half (vs 39% against the bottom)
  • Skopje sit 12, Vardar Skopje 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Skopje
WWWWW
Skopje
WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Skopje face Vardar Skopje (First League)

First League returns with Skopje hosting Vardar Skopje. Match starts October 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.