Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Skive vs Ishøj — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Skive
Skive
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ishøj
Ishøj
M. Vesterholm 67'
M. Huldahl 15' (pen)
8/31/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 5Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Skive41%
×Draw25%
Ishøj34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skive
1.48
Ishøj
1.33

Skive creates 11% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 32 away

creates per match

Skive
1.19
Ishøj
1.31

allows per match

Skive
1.34
Ishøj
1.78

finishing

Skive+0.00on par
Ishøj+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Ishøj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Skive or draw
66%
Skive or Ishøj
75%
Draw or Ishøj
59%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+
20%
Ishøj wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals
77%
Skive 2+ goals
43%
Skive 3+ goals
19%
Ishøj 1+ goals
74%
Ishøj 2+ goals
38%
Ishøj 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)
55%
Ishøj (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

Ishøj away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.19 + Ishøj defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ishøj attack 1.31 + Skive defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Skive scores more
41%
level
25%
Ishøj scores more
34%

Skive at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
S. Kristensen
15'
M. HuldahlPenalty
19'
I. Salou← I. Salou
34'
F. Warrer
40'
M. Vesterholm← M. Vesterholm
46'
W. Maretti← W. Maretti
51'
I. Salou
60'
F. Sloth
67'
M. Vesterholm
68'
J. Moussa← J. Moussa
68'
E. Teksen← E. Teksen
68'
A. S. Appiah← A. S. Appiah
72'
M. Nedergaard← M. Nedergaard
82'
R. Breiner← R. Breiner
82'
D. Yao← D. Yao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skive vs Ishøj

Skive beat Ishøj 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 31, 2024.

Goals: M. Huldahl (15' pen), M. Vesterholm (67').

The match was played at Hancock Arena in Skive.