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Skive vs HIK — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Skive
Skive
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
HIK
HIK
M. Maarouf 19'
F. Andersen 72'
E. Thomsen 35'
O. Hoybye 14' (pen)
4/9/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Skive43%
×Draw25%
HIK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skive
1.50
HIK
1.25

Skive creates 20% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 83 away

creates per match

Skive
1.19
HIK
1.16

allows per match

Skive
1.34
HIK
1.81

finishing

Skive+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Skive or draw
68%
Skive or HIK
75%
Draw or HIK
57%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+
21%
HIK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals
78%
Skive 2+ goals
44%
Skive 3+ goals
19%
HIK 1+ goals
71%
HIK 2+ goals
36%
HIK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)
58%
HIK (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

HIK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.19 + HIK defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

HIK attack 1.16 + Skive defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Skive scores more
43%
level
25%
HIK scores more
32%

Skive at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
O. HoybyePenalty
19'
M. Maarouf
35'
E. Thomsen
72'
F. Andersen
77'
M. Bager

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Skive 1–3 HIK

HIK beat Skive 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 9, 2022.

Goals: O. Hoybye (14' pen), M. Maarouf (19'), E. Thomsen (35'), F. Andersen (72').

The match was played at Hancock Arena in Skive.