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Skive vs Fremad Amager — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Skive
Skive
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
3/9/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 17Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Skive39%
×Draw26%
Fremad Amager35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skive
1.34
Fremad Amager
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 48 away

creates per match

Skive
1.21
Fremad Amager
1.17

allows per match

Skive
1.33
Fremad Amager
1.48

finishing

Skive+0.00on par
Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Fremad Amager →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Skive or draw
65%
Skive or Fremad Amager
74%
Draw or Fremad Amager
61%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+
18%
Fremad Amager wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals
74%
Skive 2+ goals
39%
Skive 3+ goals
15%
Fremad Amager 1+ goals
71%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
36%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)
53%
Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 84 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.21 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + Skive defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Skive scores more
39%
level
26%
Fremad Amager scores more
35%

Skive at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skive vs Fremad Amager

Skive and Fremad Amager drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Hancock Arena in Skive.