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Skive vs Brabrand — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Skive
Skive
Preview
12:00
Brabrand
Brabrand
4/3/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 22
Big match
40%
Skive
model favours
40%27%33%
1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Skive40%
×Draw27%
Brabrand33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skive
1.34
Brabrand
1.20

Skive creates 12% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 81 away

creates per match

Skive
1.21
Brabrand
1.06

allows per match

Skive
1.33
Brabrand
1.48

finishing

Skive+0.00on par
Brabrand+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Brabrand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Skive or draw
67%
Skive or Brabrand
73%
Draw or Brabrand
60%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+
18%
Brabrand wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals
74%
Skive 2+ goals
39%
Skive 3+ goals
15%
Brabrand 1+ goals
70%
Brabrand 2+ goals
34%
Brabrand 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)
55%
Brabrand (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 84 matches

Brabrand away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.21 + Brabrand defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Brabrand attack 1.06 + Skive defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Skive scores more
40%
level
27%
Brabrand scores more
33%

Skive at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Skive
DWWDD
Brabrand
LLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Skive face Brabrand (2nd Division - Group 1)

2nd Division - Group 1 returns with Skive hosting Brabrand. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.