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Skenderbeu Korce vs Partizani — Superliga 2018

Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Partizani
Partizani
2/25/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 25Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce34%
×Draw29%
Partizani37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skenderbeu Korce
1.06
Partizani
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 146 away

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce
1.11
Partizani
1.19

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce
1.07
Partizani
1.02

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par
Partizani+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Partizani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw
63%
Skenderbeu Korce or Partizani
71%
Draw or Partizani
66%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
13%
Partizani wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
65%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
29%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
9%
Partizani 1+ goals
68%
Partizani 2+ goals
31%
Partizani 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
48%
Partizani (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.07 · 109 matches

Partizani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.11 + Partizani defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Partizani attack 1.19 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more
34%
level
29%
Partizani scores more
37%

Partizani at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Partizani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skenderbeu Korce vs Partizani

Skenderbeu Korce beat Partizani 1-0 in Superliga on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Skënderbeu in Korçë.