Skaštice 4–2 HFK Olomouc: Result & Stats

Skaštice

FT

4 – 2

HFK Olomouc

10/3/2020

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 9Hřiště Skaštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Skaštice49%

×Draw21%

HFK Olomouc30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkašticeExpected goals in this matchHFK Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.58

Skaštice

2.08

HFK Olomouc

1.58

Skaštice creates 32% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 66 away

1.72

creates per match

1.21

1.96

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Skaštice

1.72

HFK Olomouc

1.21

allows per match

Skaštice

1.96

HFK Olomouc

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skaštice+0.00on par

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skaštice ↓

HFK Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Skaštice or draw

70%

Skaštice or HFK Olomouc

79%

Draw or HFK Olomouc

51%

Winning margin

Skaštice wins by 2+

29%

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Skaštice 1+ goals

87%

Skaštice 2+ goals

61%

Skaštice 3+ goals

34%

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

79%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

47%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Skaštice (draw refunded)

62%

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skaštice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.96 · 81 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skaštice attack 1.72 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.08

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Skaštice defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Skaštice scores more

49%

level

21%

HFK Olomouc scores more

30%

Skaštice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Skaštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff